What looks like economic policy may actually be a political weapon

Introduction: When Trade Isn’t Just About Trade

On the surface, tariffs seem like boring economic tools—just taxes on imports, right? But when used by authoritarian-leaning leaders, they become something far more dangerous: a way to gain power, reward loyalty, and punish opposition without ever firing a shot.

In countries like Hungary, Russia, Turkey, and Venezuela, economic chaos wasn’t a side effect—it was the plan. And we’re now seeing similar signs in the United States. This isn’t speculation. It’s a known pattern: destabilize, reward, control, repeat.

Here’s how that pattern works.

Step 1: Create Chaos to Gain Control

Authoritarians often start with economic disruption—raising or lowering tariffs unpredictably, targeting certain industries, and blaming outsiders for the mess. This isn’t done for strategy. It’s done to confuse people and break economic norms.

• Opposition-aligned industries lose stability and funding.
• Loyal sectors can be boosted at will.
• Emergency powers become easier to justify.

In Orbán’s Hungary, targeted taxes helped destroy independent media.
In Putin’s Russia, tariffs and import controls created a reward system for political allies.
In the U.S., Trump’s tariff shifts appear arbitrary, often helping one group while hurting another with no clear logic—perfect for selective enforcement.

Step 2: Funnel Power to Loyal Allies

Once the economy is shaken up, a door opens: the government becomes the gatekeeper of who wins and who loses.

• Some companies get waivers or subsidies.
• Others get priced out or cut off.
• Foreign competitors are cast as enemies of the people.

In Turkey, Erdoğan used economic levers to favor regime-aligned businesses.
In the U.S., industries reliant on imports become dependent on federal decisions. This creates a dangerous dynamic: support the administration, or your costs may rise.

This isn’t a market anymore. It’s a loyalty test.

Step 3: Weaponize Messaging

The chaos, once in motion, is sold as strength.

• “They’re taking advantage of us!”
• “I’m the only one strong enough to fight back!”
• “We’re under attack!”

These talking points don’t need to be true. They just need to rally support and silence dissent.

In Venezuela, Chávez and Maduro reframed economic collapse as patriotic sacrifice.
People were told to suffer with pride—because loyalty mattered more than prosperity.

In the U.S., similar narratives are already playing out. Each tariff becomes a media event, not a policy shift.

Step 4: Build a Parallel Economy

As industries grow more dependent, they slowly reorganize—not around competition, but around compliance.

• Global partners are pushed away.
• Domestic industries are forced to localize.
• A new economy emerges—loyal, inefficient, but obedient.

In Trump's case, these moves line up with the Project 2025 vision: industrial nationalism, centralized loyalty, and a break from global norms. This isn’t about efficiency. It’s about insulation from criticism and accountability.

The Endgame: A Controlled Political Economy

If you were the autocrat, here’s your win condition:

• Break economic norms, so no one knows what’s “normal” anymore.
• Make success dependent on loyalty, not merit.
• Undermine global institutions like the WTO or G7 that could challenge you.
• Turn economic hardship into a patriotic badge, where pain is proof of allegiance.
• Ditch democratic capitalism for sovereign corporatism—where you don’t own everything, but you control everything.

Because at the end of the day, this isn’t about trade.

It’s about power.

Conclusion: The Cost of Not Paying Attention

When tariffs become unpredictable, when industries must beg for exceptions, and when every economic decision comes with a political price tag—we’re not talking about policy anymore. We’re talking about control.

Authoritarian drift doesn’t always announce itself with tanks or tear gas. Sometimes it starts with a trade war. And by the time we realize what’s happening, the economy—and democracy—may already be trapped in a loyalty loop with no easy exit.